Deep Course · Money Hole

The Data-Driven Owner

Track 8 money numbers, review them in 20 minutes every Monday, set every alarm from your own history, and make 1 decision a week you can grade.

A Black Flag Media Deep Course
Included with The Standard · $297/mo
In your library with The Standard.
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What's Included

Everything in the Course

  • The Money Wall (8 numbers in 3 layers: survival, economics, capacity, ranked so the right one wins when they disagree)
  • money-wall.xlsx (the formulas are already written: 10 tabs, opens in Excel, Numbers and Google Sheets)
  • The Monday Morning Review (20 minutes, 5 slots, ends in 1 decision)
  • The Trigger Card (every alarm built from your own first 8 weeks, never from an industry table)
  • The Number Passport (7 questions every number must answer before you act on it)
  • The Decision Card (9 fields, written before you know the answer, graded at 60 days)
  • How your numbers lie (9 tracking traps, each with the check that catches it)
  • One Full First Monday (all 8 numbers computed from raw inputs, with a blank column for yours)
  • 18 paper forms, a weekly log and 5 setup guides (books, customer system, payments, time tracking, the sheet)
KEPT CURRENT · When platforms or standards change, the library changes with them.

The Problem

Most owners check the bank balance every morning. That is often the only number they know. Ask for last week's gross margin and you get a shrug. Ask what one customer costs by channel and you get a guess.

The bank balance lags, it nets everything into one figure, and it flatters. A big deposit makes a bad month feel good. By the time it tells you something is wrong, the cause is weeks behind you.

The fix is not a bigger software stack. It is 8 numbers, written down every week, read in 20 minutes every Monday, with every alarm set from your own history.

No target from us. Your first 8 weeks are your benchmark. Every alarm in this course is built from them.


The Money Wall

8 numbers in 3 layers. Ranked by how much they change the decision you make this week. When 2 disagree, the higher one wins. Every number gets a definition, a formula, a Number Passport, and moves decided in advance for when your own alarm fires.

1. Cash Days

Definition
How many days the business can operate at zero revenue before it runs out of cash.
Formula
Cash on hand ÷ (Monthly operating expenses ÷ 30)
Your alarm
Below your own lowest week, or near your next-payroll line: the days of cash already spoken for by your next payroll and the bills due before customers usually pay. You work both out from your own business.

2. Weekly Revenue, booked and collected

Definition
Cash that actually settled this week, beside the value of work actually signed this week. Not billed.
Why both
Booked leads collected. Booked falling while collected holds means you are living off backlog, and that gap is the earliest honest warning most businesses get.

3. Gross Margin, by service line

Definition
What is left of a dollar of revenue after you pay to deliver the thing. Not net profit. Not what is left after rent and your salary. Delivery cost only.
Formula
(Revenue − Cost of delivering that revenue) ÷ Revenue
Why split it
A blended margin hides the line that barely pays. Keep, reprice or drop decisions are judged on contribution and capacity, never on profit after overhead.

4. CAC, by channel

Definition
Fully loaded cost to acquire one paying customer, computed separately for every channel.
Formula
(Ad spend + agency fees + tools + sales labor) ÷ New paying customers, per channel
Also inside
Attribution coverage written beside every channel number, marginal CAC (what the next dollar buys), and why the newest month always looks expensive.

5. LTGP, and LTGP to CAC

Definition
Lifetime gross profit: the gross profit one customer leaves across the whole relationship, from repeat jobs you actually measured.
Formula
Gross profit per job × Jobs per customer
Why
Set against CAC per channel, it shows which channels pay and which do not. Under 1 means every customer from that channel loses money. Above that, no ratio from us: you watch your own and which way it moves. Plus the 30-day cash check: does the first job pay back what the customer cost?

6. Weighted Pipeline

Definition
Every open deal times the chance it closes at its stage, from your own closed history, not the software's defaults.
The staleness rule
Any deal with no activity for longer than your own median sales cycle counts as zero until something happens. The smaller number is the real one.

7. Cycle Time

Definition
Median days from first contact to signed work, from invoice to paid, and from start to finish.
Why
Money sits in unpaid invoices and unfinished jobs. Shorten the wait and you release that money once. The course shows the arithmetic, and why that release is a one-time gain rather than a doubling.

8. Team Utilization

Definition
The share of your team's available hours spent on paid work.
Your line
No band from us. You log one quality count beside it (callbacks, rework, complaints) and your strain line is the utilization where that count rose in your own weeks.

The Monday Morning Review

20 minutes. Same 5 slots. Every Monday. Alone or with one other person.

  1. Survival. Cash Days and revenue against your own Trigger Card.
  2. Your constraint. The 2 numbers your 10-minute constraint check picked for you: getting customers, selling, delivering or running.
  3. Economics. Margin by line, CAC by channel with coverage, LTGP to CAC. Drift, not spikes.
  4. Capacity. Pipeline, cycle time, utilization. Hire, wait, or fill the hours?
  5. Decide 1 move. One decision for the next 7 days, on a Decision Card with the number that drove it.

The Monday review is not the meeting. It is the alarm system that tells you which meeting to call this week.


The Trigger Card

Every threshold in this course is yours. For each weekly number you take your first 8 weeks: the lowest week, the median, the highest week. Two triggers, the same for every number: outside your own range 2 weeks running, or moving the same way 4 weeks running. Draft it at week 4, rebuild it at day 60, refresh it every quarter. The spreadsheet builds it for you and colours each week against it.

How Your Numbers Lie

The chapter most measurement books leave out. 9 ways a tracking system reports something confidently false, each with a round, made-up example from a different trade and the check that catches it:

The Decision Card

A log of "date, decision, grade" turns into opinion by day 60. The Decision Card writes the test down first: the driving number, the hypothesis, the guardrail, the window, and the result that would make you reverse it. Price changes come with the break-even line built in: how many jobs you can lose before the change costs you, and how many of your next 20 quotes you need to win.


What's Inside

  1. Start here: Cash Days in 15 minutes, with your guess written down first
  2. Why owners fly blind, and the 10-minute "which constraint are you?" check
  3. The Money Wall, the Number Passport and the 8-week build
  4. Survival numbers: Cash Days, revenue booked and collected
  5. Economics numbers: gross margin by line, CAC by channel, marginal CAC, lead cohorts, LTGP, LTGP to CAC, the 30-day cash check
  6. Capacity numbers: weighted pipeline, cycle time, utilization
  7. The Monday Morning Review, the Trigger Card, seasonality, the 9 pairs, the 3 questions
  8. How your numbers lie: 9 traps
  9. The Decision Card and the pause test
  10. The Money Wall sheet, tab by tab
  11. Worked examples: One Full First Monday and 4 labelled composites, including the one that went wrong
  12. Metrics, your baseline, the scorecard, common mistakes, the 30 and 60-day look-backs

Sample: Cash Days in 15 Minutes

Before you open anything, write down how many days you think your business could run with no money coming in. Then count. Add up every operating account balance today, with no credit line and no money you expect. Add up everything that left the business over the last 3 months and divide by 3. Then divide cash on hand by one day of that.

On round, made-up numbers: $48,000 in the bank and $72,000 a month going out is $2,400 a day, so 20 Cash Days. Divide the same cash by one payroll run of $14,000 and it covers 3.4 payrolls. That tells you what the cash actually covers in your business, which is more useful than any band a book could print.

Write the count beside your guess. That count is your baseline. Most owners find the real number is below the guess.


The Sheet

money-wall.xlsx has the formulas already written. Yellow cells are yours, grey cells calculate. Tabs: Weekly, Trigger Card, Definitions, Channels, Pipeline, Cycle, Coverage, Decisions and First Monday. Every yellow cell starts with a hypothetical electrician's round numbers so you can see the math work, then you type over them. You copy about 12 minutes of numbers in by hand each week, on purpose: automated dashboards break quietly and keep showing the last good value.

If you have The Standard, the Metrics Dashboard Template is its weekly lead-to-cash tracker. This course is the money layer above it, and the two share the same definitions of Cash Days, gross margin and CAC.


When To Get a Bookkeeper

Stay on this yourself until one of these is true in your business:

  1. Gathering takes longer than reading. Pay someone to gather.
  2. You cannot split margin by line in under an hour. Usually the books are not tagged by service line yet.
  3. You skipped the Monday review twice in a row because gathering felt hard. That is the real tell.

Hire to protect the discipline, never to escape it. Someone else can gather the numbers. You always read them.


Questions

Will it tell me what my numbers should be?

No. There is no industry figure in it for any of the 8 numbers. Every alarm comes from your own first 8 weeks. A number from somebody else's business cannot know your price, your market or your season.

Do I need accounting software or a CRM?

No. A bank statement, your payment processor and a spreadsheet are enough to start. The setup guides cover QuickBooks, Xero, Wave, common customer systems, payment processors and time tracking.

My business is under a year old. Does this work?

Yes, with a reduced wall of 5 numbers. The course says which 5 and what to label as first-year figures until you have real history.

Are the examples real businesses?

No. Every person in the course is a labelled composite with round, made-up numbers. They show decisions, not results. We do not publish client results.

Is this financial advice?

No. It gives you the triggers and the arithmetic. When a trigger says talk to your accountant or banker, that is what it means.


Who This Is For

Owners doing $100K to $5M a year who say they know their numbers but could not tell you last week's gross margin, what one customer costs by channel, or where next month's payroll comes from. Trades, home services, clinics, restaurants, agencies, small ecommerce. Any owner ready to swap morning bank-balance anxiety for a 20-minute Monday habit.

Read it in your library.

This is included with The Standard, along with every other guide in the library. Your monthly re-audit tells you which one to open next. $497 to start, $297/mo to keep it running. Cancel any month and keep everything.

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The Data-Driven Owner
Included in The Standard · $297/mo
See The Standard →
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